Triple-I: Colorado State’s 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast Calls for ‘Above Average’ Season

An above average hurricane season is projected for 2025 in the Atlantic basin, according to a forecast released today by Colorado State University’s (CSU) Department of Atmospheric Science.

Led by CSU senior research scientist Phil Klotzbach, Ph.D., a non-resident scholar at the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I), the CSU TC-RAMS research team forecasts 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes during the 2025 season, which starts on June 1 and continues through Nov. 30. A typical Atlantic season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

“The tropical Atlantic is warmer than normal, although thankfully not as warm as last year at this time,” Klotzbach said. “At this point, we anticipate either neutral El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or perhaps weak La Niña this summer and fall. The combination of a warm Atlantic and either neutral ENSO or weak La Niña typically yields an above-average Atlantic hurricane season.”

The 2024 season produced 18 named storms and 11 hurricanes. Five reached major hurricane intensity. Major hurricanes are defined as those with wind speeds reaching Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Five hurricanes made U.S. landfalls last year, including three in Florida: Hurricane Debby, a Category 1 landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region near Steinhatchee on Aug. 5, with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph; Hurricane Helene, a Category 4 major hurricane landfall in the Big Bend near Perry on Sept. 26, with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph; and Hurricane Milton, a Category 3 major hurricane landfall near Siesta Key along Florida’s western Gulf Coast on Oct. 11, with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph.

Helene caused tremendous damage across the southeastern U.S., with catastrophic wind and storm surge damage devastating parts of Florida’s west coast. Farther inland, strong winds and record-shattering flooding severely damaged portions of Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia.

Other 2024 U.S. landfalls included Hurricane Beryl, a Category 1 landfall near Matagorda, Texas, on July 8, with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph; and Hurricane Francine, a Category 2 landfall along the southern Louisiana coast near the St. Mary/Terrebonne Parish line on Sept. 11, with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph.

“The widespread damage incurred from last year’s hurricane season highlighted the importance of being financially protected from catastrophic losses and that includes having adequate levels of property insurance and flood coverage. As we saw with Hurricane Helene and its impacts across the Southeast, severe damage can occur well beyond where a tropical cyclone makes landfall. All it takes is one storm to make it an active season for you and your family, so it is time to prepare as the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season’s start nears,” said Sean Kevelighan, CEO, Triple-I.

Kevelighan added, “This is an ideal time for homeowners and business owners to review their insurance policies with an insurance professional to ensure they have the right amount and types of coverage, allowing them to be financially protected for property damage caused by either wind or water. That also means exploring whether they need flood coverage, which is not part of a standard homeowners, condo, renters or business insurance policy. Additionally, homeowners can make their residences more resilient to windstorms and torrential rain by installing roof tie-downs and a good drainage system.”

Flood policies are offered through FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and dozens of private insurers. The installation of a wind-rated garage door and storm shutters also boost a home’s resilience to a hurricane’s damaging winds, according to the Triple-I, and can potentially generate savings on a homeowner’s insurance premium.

Private-passenger vehicles damaged or destroyed by either wind or flooding are covered under the optional comprehensive portion of an auto insurance policy. About 75% of U.S. drivers carry comprehensive coverage, according to Triple-I.

Triple-I offers numerous hurricane season preparedness tips. These include:

• Developing a photo/video inventory of your possessions and your home’s exterior, which will ease the claim-filing process.
• Preparing a hurricane emergency kit with a minimum two-week supply of essential items, such as drinking water, non-perishable food, medications, flashlights and extra batteries.
• Creating an evacuation plan well before any storm warnings are issued.

CSU’s forecast also includes the following probability of major hurricanes making landfall in 2025:

• 51% for the entire U.S. coastline (average from 1880–2020 is 43%).
• 26% for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (average from 1880–2020 is 21%).
• 33% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas (average from 1880–2020 is 27%).
• 56% for the Caribbean (average from 1880–2020 is 47%).

FACTS & STATISTICS

Hurricanes

Flood Insurance

TRIPLE-I ISSUES BRIEFS

Hurricanes: State of the Risk

Flood: State of the Risk

CONSUMER RESOURCES

Catastrophes: Insurance Issues

Hurricane Season Insurance Checklist

How to Prepare for Hurricane Season

Hurricane Season Insurance Guide

Hurricane and Windstorm Deductibles

Understanding Your Insurance Deductible

Preparing an Effective Evacuation Plan

Settling Insurance Claims After a Disaster

Spotlight on Flood Insurance

Facts About Flood Insurance

Recovering from a Flood

INFOGRAPHICS

What are Hurricane Deductibles?

How to Prepare for Hurricane Season

How to File a Flood Insurance Claim

Is Your Business Ready for Peak Hurricane Season?

EXTERNAL RESOURCES

FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP)

NFIP Information for Insurance Agents

RELATED VIDEOS

Dr. Klotzbach Discusses 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

Hurricane Insurance Guide

Insurance Check-Up: Homeowners and Hurricane/Flood Insurance

Create a Home Inventory

About the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I)

Since 1960, the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) has been the trusted voice of risk and insurance, delivering unique, data-driven insights to educate, elevate and connect consumers, industry professionals, policymakers and the media. An affiliate of The Institutes, Triple-I represents a diverse membership accounting for nearly 50% of all U.S. property/casualty premiums written. Our members include mutual and stock companies, personal and commercial lines, primary insurers and reinsurers – serving regional, national and global markets. Brokers, agents, consultants, educators and other insurance industry professionals are among Triple-I’s associate members.

About the Institutes

The Institutes are a global not-for-profit comprising diverse affiliates that educate, elevate, and connect people in the essential disciplines of risk management and insurance. Through products and services offered by The Institutes’ nearly 20 affiliated business units, people and organizations are empowered to help those in need with a focus on understanding, predicting, and preventing losses to create a more resilient world.

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This is an ideal time for homeowners and business owners to review their insurance policies with an insurance professional to ensure they have the right amount and types of coverage, allowing them to be financially protected from storm damage.